Turkey's Role in the Evolving Middle Eastern Landscape
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
Moshe Dayan Center;
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
24 June 2025

Israel’s latest military operation, backed by the U.S., dismantled Iran’s nuclear program and crippled its military capacity, showing Iran to be far weaker than once believed. This outcome reinforced the close U.S.-Israel relationship and left Israel and Turkey as the main power players in the region. Turkey now views Israel’s military dominance as a direct security threat, especially since Iran can no longer deter Israel. In response, Turkey is investing heavily in its intelligence services, air defense systems, and ballistic missile capabilities. At the same time, it has positioned itself as a leading voice for pan-Islamic unity against Israel, framing Muslim solidarity as a political and strategic alliance that could challenge not only Israel but other non-Muslim states as well. Internally, Erdogan is consolidating his power by jailing opposition figures and limiting dissent, facing little resistance from the EU or the U.S., who see Turkey as too important to alienate while they focus on Russia and Syria. Turkey’s role in Syria has allowed the U.S. to extend its influence there, further strengthening Erdogan’s hand. Amid the region’s conflicts, Turkey presents itself as an island of stability surrounded by chaos, which bolsters Erdogan’s domestic popularity. He is expected to use this narrative to justify constitutional changes to extend his rule and benefit economically from Syria’s reconstruction through well-connected Turkish contractors.

Recent Developments in Turkey's Domestic Politics and Foreign Affairs
Dieco Cupolo
Editor-in-Chief, Turkey Recap
13 June 2025

Between January and June 2025, Turkish politics have been marked by intensified authoritarianism and strategic political maneuvering by President Erdoğan. The most visible development has been a sweeping crackdown on the main opposition, the CHP, highlighted by the March arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on multiple vague charges. His imprisonment, seen as politically motivated, sparked mass protests that have since dwindled, though organized rallies continue under CHP leader Özgür Özel. These moves are widely viewed as efforts to silence dissent and eliminate Erdoğan’s strongest rivals ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Simultaneously, Erdoğan has revived a peace process with the Kurdish movement, culminating in a surprising call by jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan in February for the group’s disarmament. This initiative could provide Erdoğan with a new parliamentary ally in the DEM party, while also fracturing the previous CHP-Kurdish alliance that helped the opposition win key elections. Though the peace process is unpopular among Turkish nationalists, it may grant Kurds more cultural and political rights—albeit mostly those already promised under law but not enforced. Regionally, Turkey hopes the peace deal will reduce threats from Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq while boosting Ankara’s leverage amid broader Middle East instability. Meanwhile, the Turkish economy remains strained, with 35% inflation, low growth, and severely weakened purchasing power fueling widespread dissatisfaction. Despite the many reasons for public unrest—economic hardship, political repression, and controversial peace talks—Erdoğan appears to be tightening his grip, crushing dissent and consolidating a hegemonic political order.

#Turkey #TurkishPolitics #EasternMediterranean

Diego Cupolo is the editor-in-chief of Turkey Recap, a newsletter focused on Turkish politics and business.
Follow Turkey Recap at: www.x.com/Turkeyrecap

Lebanon's Future after the Hezbollah-Israel War
Habib Malik
Associate Professor of History (Retired), Lebanese American University
Senior Fellow and Consultant for the Charles Malik Institute, Philos Project
6 June 2025

Following a ceasefire and just after a visit by Iran’s foreign minister, Israel carried out drone strikes on Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut, aiming to reinforce the message that Hezbollah must disarm and cannot reconstitute itself. Both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government are refusing to accept this new reality, with the government remaining paralyzed and ineffective despite bold rhetoric.
The Lebanese government has failed to act decisively on promises to consolidate arms under state control, instead making disappointing appointments and showing signs of old political habits. Lebanon is seen as falling off the U.S. strategic radar, especially as Syria under Ahmed al-Sharaa — a former jihadist — gains favor by appearing more capable of delivering results. Lebanon’s paralysis can be traced back to its structural flaws as a centralized, sectarian state. The country is in need of administrative decentralization and eventual constitutional federalism. While some officials, such as Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji, have made promising statements about distancing Lebanon from Iranian substate actors, real change remains elusive. No reconstruction, Israeli withdrawal, or inflow of funds will happen until Hezbollah is disarmed and Lebanon moves toward peace, possibly via the Abraham Accords. Israel’s strategy of creating buffer zones will remain in place until Lebanon fulfills its obligations.

#Lebanon #Israel #lebanonisraelconflict

Habib Malik was born in 1954 in Washington, D.C., and received his education both in the United States and Lebanon. He earned his bachelor's degree in history from the American University of Beirut. After spending one year at Princeton University, he joined Harvard University for his graduate studies, where he earned his Ph.D. in Modern European Intellectual History in 1985. Habib taught Intellectual/Cultural and Socio/Political History at the American University of Beirut's Off-Campus Program (OCP) and at the Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. He was a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in 1995 and 1996, and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in 2003. His father, Charles Malik, was the first ambassador of Lebanon to the United States, the Lebanese representative to the United Nations, and a leading figure in the drafting and adoption of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Habib is also a human rights activist.

Recent Developments in Turkish Politics
Diego Cupolo
Editor-In-Chief and Co-Founder of Turkey Recap
17 January 2025

Diego Kopo, the editor-in-chief of Turkey Recap, highlights three key recent developments in Turkish politics and foreign policy. First, a surprising peace process between the Turkish state and the PKK emerged, marked by contentious gestures such as Devlet Bahçeli, a nationalist leader, inviting PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to address Parliament, though this process remains divisive and fraught with violent disruptions. Second, a Syrian regime change, following a weakened Assad government due to the Gaza war's impact on Hezbollah, has seen HTS seize control, with Turkey's indirect involvement speculated as facilitating this shift. Turkey now navigates its influence over the new Syrian government, amid public demands for refugee returns and ongoing tensions with Kurdish militias in Syria. Third, Turkey continues its fight against inflation, with the finance minister pursuing stringent measures to stabilize the economy, including limited wage increases despite soaring consumer prices. President Erdoğan appears to leverage these developments for political gain, including consolidating Kurdish votes and potentially amending the constitution to extend his rule.
#TurkishPolitics #Turkey #Syria

Follow Diego and Turkey Recap on X: https://twitter.com/DiegoCupolo; https://twitter.com/Turkeyrecap

Turkey's Foreign Policy in a Shifting Regional Landscape
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
Moshe Dayan Center and Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
16 January 2025

Dr. Cohen Yanarocak discussed Turkey's shift in foreign policy under Erdoğan, transitioning from a cautious, non-interventionist approach to an assertive and influential role in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean. This change reflects a neo-Ottoman vision, aiming to restore Turkey’s historical influence in the region through military, political, and economic strategies. It can also be observed in Turkey's actions in Syria, its strained relations with Israel, and its use of soft power and infrastructure projects to expand its reach. Turkey's strategy has far-reaching implications for neighboring countries and the balance of power in the region.

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Agreement
Laury Haytayan
Energy Policy Expert in the Middle East and North Africa
27 November 2024

On November 26, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, which was subsequently confirmed by U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron. The Lebanese government, led by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri as the primary negotiator, was the last to confirm the ceasefire on November 27. However, criticism arose over the Speaker’s negotiation allegedly prioritizing Hezbollah's interests rather than Lebanon’s national interests. The ceasefire terms include a 60-day timeline for the Lebanese Armed Forces to gradually deploy in southern Lebanon, ensuring Hezbollah’s military presence is dismantled, while Israeli forces withdraw. The agreement, backed by UN resolution 1701, introduces a new enforcement mechanism involving U.S. and French oversight. Although the ceasefire has eased immediate humanitarian concerns, political tensions persist in Lebanon over Hezbollah’s role and influence, with debates about its alignment with Iranian agendas and its unilateral actions in the conflict. The coming 60 days are critical for the agreement’s implementation and the region’s stability.

Laury Haytayan is a Lebanese oil and gas expert in the Middle East and North Africa. She is the Middle East and North Africa director at the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) - an independent, international non-profit organization that provides policy advice, research and works on advocating for better managed resources and energy transition in oil rich countries. She was selected by Gulf Intelligence as one of the top 30 female energy market analysts and one of the top 50 energy experts in MENA for 2023. Laury hosts NRGI's monthly webcasts on energy transition in MENA (https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpH1GF5iTHBHtiJK6uti0Ne-Aq0acmNd4) and the podcast "Energy Espresso," a UNDP and EU production focused on energy in Lebanon (https://podcasts.apple.com/lb/podcast/energy-espresso/id1607821499). You can also find her at https://x.com/LauryHaytayan.

#Israel #Hezbollah #ceasefire

Jordan in the Context of Regional Developments
Amer Al Sabaileh
University Professor and Geopolitical Expert
10 October 2024

Jordan faces significant challenges due to its geographic position and regional instability, but it remains a relatively stable country with strong institutions. King Abdullah II’s leadership has maintained political stability, despite economic hardships and rising domestic discontent. The recent electoral success of the Muslim Brotherhood reflects popular frustrations, but Jordan’s monarchy retains control over key decisions. Jordan’s economy, heavily reliant on tourism and foreign aid, has been severely impacted by regional conflicts, particularly the war in Gaza. To build resilience, the country must diversify its economy, investing in infrastructure, agriculture, and technology. Partnerships with regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE are crucial for economic and security cooperation. Projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor could help Jordan position itself as a regional hub. The relationship with Israel, while essential for security and economic stability, remains a source of domestic tension, especially concerning the Palestinian issue. Jordan must balance its peace treaty with Israel while advocating for Palestinian statehood. Jordan’s relations with Iran are strained, primarily due to Iran's regional ambitions and its strategy of using Jordan as a geographic tool in its anti-Israel agenda. Iran views Jordan as a gateway to the West Bank, which has led to attempts at infiltration, smuggling, and destabilization. Despite some voices in Jordan advocating for diplomacy with Iran to reduce tensions, the text suggests that Iran’s actions on the ground—through its Revolutionary Guard and proxy forces—undermine the possibility of improving relations.