Israel-Hezbollah Conflict: a Lebanese Perspective
Habib Malik
Associate Professor of History (Retired), Lebanese American University
Senior Fellow and Consultant for the Charles Malik Institute (CMI), Philos Project
23 August 2024

Habib Malik discusses the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which he sees as an existential war for Israel, driven by what he calls a "ring of fire" established by Iran through its support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Habib highlights Iran's expansionist ambitions in the region, particularly its strategic use of the Palestinian cause to extend its influence. In Lebanon, the situation is dire, with Hezbollah, Iran's primary proxy, effectively controlling parts of the country and undermining the Lebanese government. This control has led to economic collapse, political paralysis, and social unrest. Hezbollah prioritizes Iran's interests over Lebanon's and has created a state within a state, complete with its own economy and foreign policy. The Lebanese people, Habib asserts, are largely opposed to Hezbollah's actions and the broader conflict, which they feel has been imposed on them by external forces. He also touches on the rising tensions between different religious groups in Lebanon, with Hezbollah's rhetoric contributing to a climate of fear and division. The situation remains volatile, with potential for further escalation, although Habib notes that recent actions by the United States and Israel have temporarily deterred Iran and Hezbollah from further aggression. However, the situation is still precarious, with the possibility of accidental escalation keeping the region on edge.

#Lebanon #Israelwar #hezbollah

Habib Malik was born in 1954 in Washington, D.C., and received his education both in the United States and Lebanon. He earned his bachelor's degree in history from the American University of Beirut. After spending one year at Princeton University, he joined Harvard University for his graduate studies, where he earned his Ph.D. in Modern European Intellectual History in 1985. Habib taught Intellectual/Cultural and Socio/Political History at the American University of Beirut's Off-Campus Program (OCP) and at the Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. He was a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in 1995 and 1996, and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in 2003. His father, Charles Malik, was the first ambassador of Lebanon to the United States, the Lebanese representative to the United Nations, and a leading figure in the drafting and adoption of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Habib is also a human rights activist.

The Ramifications of the Majdal Shams Attack and the Recent Regional Escalation
Assaad Al Achi
Executive Director, Baytna
9 August 2024

The recent assassination of Hamas's political leader by Israel has led to a significant escalation of violence in the region. The attack on Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, a key area for the Druze community, is seen as a message to both Israeli Druze and those in Syria, particularly in Suweida, where anti-Assad protests are ongoing. This has heightened fears of further violence against these groups. The conflict's escalation is also expected to complicate the Syrian situation, with concerns about increased skirmishes between Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. forces on Syrian territory. There are also fears of disruptions to Syria's already fragile energy supply, which is heavily dependent on Iran. Turkey's role in the conflict has shifted to openly supporting the Palestinian cause, leading to a sharp deterioration in its relationship with Israel. This shift is marked by Turkey's recent actions, including inviting Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to address its parliament and joining an international case against Israel. Within Hamas, the appointment of a more radical leader following the assassination of its former political chief signals a move away from political negotiation toward a more militant stance, likely straining relationships with Arab nations like Qatar and Egypt and making future negotiations with Israel even more difficult.

#israelwar #Druze #GolanHeights

Assaad al-Achi is a Syrian economist and civil society activist based in Gaziantep, Turkey. He graduated from the American University of Beirut and INSEAD. He is currently executive director of Baytna Syria, a civil society support organization that seeks to be a hub for Syrian civil society organizations and empower them through capacity development and grants.

The Situation in Lebanon amid the Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict
Laury Haytayan
Energy Policy Expert in the Middle East and North Africa
9 August 2024

The situation in Lebanon is marked by ongoing conflict initiated by Hezbollah, which began on October 8th to support Hamas in its conflict with Israel. This decision was made without consulting Lebanese authorities or other political factions, leading to divisions within the country. Many Lebanese citizens and political parties oppose the war, arguing that Lebanon, already burdened by economic, political, and financial crises, cannot afford another conflict. The war has caused significant devastation, especially in southern Lebanon, where infrastructure and agricultural lands have been destroyed, and people have been displaced. Despite the ongoing conflict, parts of Lebanon, particularly Beirut, have tried to maintain a semblance of normal life, although recent escalations have disrupted this, causing fear and panic. The war has also impacted the oil and gas sector in Lebanon. Despite ongoing exploration efforts, the conflict has made it difficult for companies to invest, further exacerbating the country’s economic challenges. The situation remains uncertain, with potential future developments likely influenced by the outcomes of the upcoming U.S. elections and how they might affect the broader Middle East conflict.

#Lebanon #Hezbollah #israelwar

Laury Haytayan is an energy policy and geopolitics expert. She is the Middle East and North Africa director at the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), as well as the host of the Energy Espresso podcast. She teaches a course on the geopolitics of energy in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Politics of Strategic Survival, Influence, Values and Ideologies of Iran and IsraelProf. Farid Mirbagheri
Professor of International Relations and Dialogue Chair in Middle Eastern Studies (Retd.)
University of Nicosia
14 June 2024

Professor Mirbagheri discusses the complex political dynamics and ideological conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, that revolve around the influence of ideology on state governance. Ideology, when intertwined with religion, often acts as a destabilizing force, leading to challenges in achieving state goals. Historical examples, such as the Soviet Union and Iran, illustrate how states that are deeply rooted in ideology frequently struggle to fulfill their objectives. Iran's role in the region is significant, especially in its financial and military support for proxy groups like Hezbollah. Through these proxies, Iran extends its influence and maintains its ideological opposition to Israel, contributing to the ongoing conflict. The challenges of applying Western concepts of statehood in the tribal societies of the Middle East are also evident. In these regions, tribal loyalty often supersedes national loyalty, making governance more complex. The distinct cultural and social structures in these societies create difficulties in adopting Western-style governance, as tribalism and religiosity remain strong forces. Furthermore, the concepts of peace and security are not always synonymous in this context. Israel's relationships with its Arab neighbors reveal that peace does not necessarily guarantee security. Strategic decisions, such as the division of Palestinian groups, have had lasting impacts on regional security.

#Iran #Israel #Lebanon

Prof. Farid Mirbagheri is an academic and was formerly Professor of International Relations and held the Dialogue Chair in Middle Easter Studies at the University of Nicosia up to his retirement in 2023. A co-founder of the Cyprus Diplomatic Academy in 2010 he was its first Executive Director for two years. From 1997 to 2005 he also acted as the Research Director of the Centre for World Dialogue, a NGO committed to promoting inter-cultural dialogue, based in Nicosia.

Professor Mirbagheri was also a member of the original committee of Jubilee 2000, a global movement that has been campaigning for the remission of the backlog of unpayable debt by poorer countries. He has spoken in various international fora internationally and has written extensively. His latest books include War and Peace in Islam (Palgrave) and The Historical Dictionary of Cyprus (Scarecrow Press).

Strategic Thoughts and Other Delusions - Book Presentation
Lars Wedin
Captain Royal Swedish Navy (retd)
25 April 2024


In this compilation of articles, Captain Lars Wedin RSwN (retd) provides readers with his own reflections on the concept of strategy, both in theory and practical use. These insights stem from his experience as an officer in the Swedish Navy, his study of strategy, and his extensive diplomatic experience. The history of Sweden's naval strategy is a fascinating and often overlooked topic in the study of naval warfare. Despite its small size and limited resources, Sweden has maintained a proud and effective naval tradition, with a strategic outlook shaped by its unique geopolitical position. Captain Wedin discusses a wide range of issues that extend beyond Sweden’s experiences. He organizes his writings into several sections that broadly focus on strategic theory, general strategy, and naval strategy. Within these sections, he shares his thoughts on various topics such as strategic surprises, asymmetric warfare, European security, Europe’s relations with Russia, nuclear weapons, the strategic importance of the island of Gotland, and the issues related to Swedish defense, among others.

The Recent Tensions in Syria and the Broader Eastern Mediterranean
Assaad Al Achi
Executive Director
Baytna
10 April 2024

The recent conflicts in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly following the dramatic incidents of October 7, have visibly intensified. Israeli military actions in Syria have notably increased, with airstrikes that reached deeper into Syrian territory than seen in previous years. These operations often target senior commanders from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This heightened military activity is set against a backdrop of a seemingly subdued response from the Syrian government, which has limited its reactions to routine statements, thereby raising questions about the true extent of its sovereignty and control and the apparent dominance of Iranian influence within Syrian political and military frameworks. Lebanon, too, feels the reverberations of these tensions. The kinetic engagements along the Israeli-Lebanese border, primarily involving Hezbollah and Israeli forces, have led to significant security concerns and displacement of populations in northern Israel. This ongoing conflict has prompted discussions about potential strategies to either push Hezbollah back or to formalize border delineations through diplomatic channels, with the U.S. playing a mediating role in these negotiations.

#SyrianConflict #israelpalestineconflict

Assaad al-Achi is a Syrian economist and civil society activist based in Gaziantep, Turkey. He graduated from the American University of Beirut and INSEAD. He is currently executive director of Baytna Syria, a civil society support organization that seeks to be a hub for Syrian civil society organizations and empower them through capacity development and grants.

Turkish Local Elections Results
Diego Cupolo
Editor-in-Chief, Co-Founder
Turkey Recap
2 April 2024

The Republican People's Party (CHP) received the highest voter share in the Turkish local elections, marking a significant event as it's the first time this has happened under Erdogan's rule with the AKP (Justice and Development Party). This result has ignited hope among opposition supporters, despite the fact that local election outcomes do not directly translate to general election results. The success of the CHP's candidate in Istanbul is viewed as a sign that he could be a viable presidential contender in future elections. However, caution is advised as the AKP remains in power, and Turkey is currently facing economic challenges, including high inflation. The emergence of the New Welfare Party, a far-right conservative party, has provided conservative voters with an alternative to the AKP, weakening AKP's hold slightly. This shift is attributed to discontent with the economy and AKP's policies towards Israel, suggesting a potential reconfiguration in conservative Turkish politics.
Economic crises and dissatisfaction with government policies have led to increased support for the opposition. The local elections showcased strategic voting, with Kurdish voters and others aligning with opposition candidates in key areas, potentially decreasing polarization and indicating a shift in the political landscape. The political future of Turkey remains uncertain with speculation about Erdogan's potential successors and the role of new and existing political parties. Economic policies, national and global politics, and coalition dynamics are key factors that will shape the upcoming elections and Turkey's political trajectory.

Diego Cupolo is an Editor-in-chief "Turkey recap". Follow him on X: https://twitter.com/DiegoCupolo; https://twitter.com/Turkeyrecap

#Turkey #TurkishLocalElections #TurkishPolitics