Jordan in the Context of Regional Developments
Amer Al Sabaileh
University Professor and Geopolitical Expert
10 October 2024

Jordan faces significant challenges due to its geographic position and regional instability, but it remains a relatively stable country with strong institutions. King Abdullah II’s leadership has maintained political stability, despite economic hardships and rising domestic discontent. The recent electoral success of the Muslim Brotherhood reflects popular frustrations, but Jordan’s monarchy retains control over key decisions. Jordan’s economy, heavily reliant on tourism and foreign aid, has been severely impacted by regional conflicts, particularly the war in Gaza. To build resilience, the country must diversify its economy, investing in infrastructure, agriculture, and technology. Partnerships with regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE are crucial for economic and security cooperation. Projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor could help Jordan position itself as a regional hub. The relationship with Israel, while essential for security and economic stability, remains a source of domestic tension, especially concerning the Palestinian issue. Jordan must balance its peace treaty with Israel while advocating for Palestinian statehood. Jordan’s relations with Iran are strained, primarily due to Iran's regional ambitions and its strategy of using Jordan as a geographic tool in its anti-Israel agenda. Iran views Jordan as a gateway to the West Bank, which has led to attempts at infiltration, smuggling, and destabilization. Despite some voices in Jordan advocating for diplomacy with Iran to reduce tensions, the text suggests that Iran’s actions on the ground—through its Revolutionary Guard and proxy forces—undermine the possibility of improving relations.

Turkey's Current Foreign Policy
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
Moshe Dayan Center and Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
27 August 2024

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak discusses Turkey's foreign policy, focusing on its strained relationship with Israel following Hamas's attacks on October 7th. Turkey initially misunderstood the scope of Israel's war on Hamas, leading to a pro-Hamas stance. This has worsened Israeli-Turkish relations and impacted Turkey’s foreign policy, which now seeks Israel’s failure in the international arena. Additionally, Turkey is normalizing relations with other neighboring countries, including Iraq, Egypt, Syria, and Greece, while also seeking to strengthen its presence in Africa, particularly in Somalia and Niger. Turkey’s involvement in Libya and the Sahel region, along with its aspirations for a nuclear program, highlights its growing geopolitical influence. Turkey’s relations with Israel and the U.S. may evolve depending on future political developments in the United States, especially if Donald Trump returns to power.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, Ph.D (Tel Aviv University) is a researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, and an expert on contemporary Turkish politics and society. Hay is the editor of Turkeyscope, and a member of the Middle East Network Analysis Desk. He is a frequent guest on Israeli and international media, where he regularly appears to discuss contemporary Turkish issues.

Follow him at https://x.com/hayeytan

#turkey #turkeyisrael #easternmediterranean

An Overview of Turkish Foreign Policy
Diego Cupolo
Editor-in-Chief, Co-Founder
Turkey Recap
27 August 2024

Diego Cupolo discusses Turkey's foreign policy in 2024, focusing on its efforts to normalize relations with regional neighbors. He highlights Turkey's security agreement with Iraq aimed at countering Kurdish militants and the push for new trade routes to enhance regional commerce. Relations with Syria remain stalled, although Turkey and Russia have resumed joint patrols in northern Syria. Additionally, Turkey is attempting to mediate conflicts in Africa, the Caucasus, and maintain a balancing act between Russia and Ukraine amid U.S. sanctions. Lastly, Turkey's relations with the EU show potential progress, with renewed diplomatic engagements despite concerns over Turkey's growing energy dependency on Russia.

Diego Cupolo is an Editor-in-chief "Turkey recap". Follow him on X: https://twitter.com/DiegoCupolo; https://twitter.com/Turkeyrecap

#Turkey #Türkiye #EasternMediterranean

Israel-Hezbollah Conflict: a Lebanese Perspective
Habib Malik
Associate Professor of History (Retired), Lebanese American University
Senior Fellow and Consultant for the Charles Malik Institute (CMI), Philos Project
23 August 2024

Habib Malik discusses the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which he sees as an existential war for Israel, driven by what he calls a "ring of fire" established by Iran through its support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Habib highlights Iran's expansionist ambitions in the region, particularly its strategic use of the Palestinian cause to extend its influence. In Lebanon, the situation is dire, with Hezbollah, Iran's primary proxy, effectively controlling parts of the country and undermining the Lebanese government. This control has led to economic collapse, political paralysis, and social unrest. Hezbollah prioritizes Iran's interests over Lebanon's and has created a state within a state, complete with its own economy and foreign policy. The Lebanese people, Habib asserts, are largely opposed to Hezbollah's actions and the broader conflict, which they feel has been imposed on them by external forces. He also touches on the rising tensions between different religious groups in Lebanon, with Hezbollah's rhetoric contributing to a climate of fear and division. The situation remains volatile, with potential for further escalation, although Habib notes that recent actions by the United States and Israel have temporarily deterred Iran and Hezbollah from further aggression. However, the situation is still precarious, with the possibility of accidental escalation keeping the region on edge.

#Lebanon #Israelwar #hezbollah

Habib Malik was born in 1954 in Washington, D.C., and received his education both in the United States and Lebanon. He earned his bachelor's degree in history from the American University of Beirut. After spending one year at Princeton University, he joined Harvard University for his graduate studies, where he earned his Ph.D. in Modern European Intellectual History in 1985. Habib taught Intellectual/Cultural and Socio/Political History at the American University of Beirut's Off-Campus Program (OCP) and at the Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. He was a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in 1995 and 1996, and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in 2003. His father, Charles Malik, was the first ambassador of Lebanon to the United States, the Lebanese representative to the United Nations, and a leading figure in the drafting and adoption of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Habib is also a human rights activist.

The Ramifications of the Majdal Shams Attack and the Recent Regional Escalation
Assaad Al Achi
Executive Director, Baytna
9 August 2024

The recent assassination of Hamas's political leader by Israel has led to a significant escalation of violence in the region. The attack on Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, a key area for the Druze community, is seen as a message to both Israeli Druze and those in Syria, particularly in Suweida, where anti-Assad protests are ongoing. This has heightened fears of further violence against these groups. The conflict's escalation is also expected to complicate the Syrian situation, with concerns about increased skirmishes between Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. forces on Syrian territory. There are also fears of disruptions to Syria's already fragile energy supply, which is heavily dependent on Iran. Turkey's role in the conflict has shifted to openly supporting the Palestinian cause, leading to a sharp deterioration in its relationship with Israel. This shift is marked by Turkey's recent actions, including inviting Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to address its parliament and joining an international case against Israel. Within Hamas, the appointment of a more radical leader following the assassination of its former political chief signals a move away from political negotiation toward a more militant stance, likely straining relationships with Arab nations like Qatar and Egypt and making future negotiations with Israel even more difficult.

#israelwar #Druze #GolanHeights

Assaad al-Achi is a Syrian economist and civil society activist based in Gaziantep, Turkey. He graduated from the American University of Beirut and INSEAD. He is currently executive director of Baytna Syria, a civil society support organization that seeks to be a hub for Syrian civil society organizations and empower them through capacity development and grants.

The Situation in Lebanon amid the Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict
Laury Haytayan
Energy Policy Expert in the Middle East and North Africa
9 August 2024

The situation in Lebanon is marked by ongoing conflict initiated by Hezbollah, which began on October 8th to support Hamas in its conflict with Israel. This decision was made without consulting Lebanese authorities or other political factions, leading to divisions within the country. Many Lebanese citizens and political parties oppose the war, arguing that Lebanon, already burdened by economic, political, and financial crises, cannot afford another conflict. The war has caused significant devastation, especially in southern Lebanon, where infrastructure and agricultural lands have been destroyed, and people have been displaced. Despite the ongoing conflict, parts of Lebanon, particularly Beirut, have tried to maintain a semblance of normal life, although recent escalations have disrupted this, causing fear and panic. The war has also impacted the oil and gas sector in Lebanon. Despite ongoing exploration efforts, the conflict has made it difficult for companies to invest, further exacerbating the country’s economic challenges. The situation remains uncertain, with potential future developments likely influenced by the outcomes of the upcoming U.S. elections and how they might affect the broader Middle East conflict.

#Lebanon #Hezbollah #israelwar

Laury Haytayan is an energy policy and geopolitics expert. She is the Middle East and North Africa director at the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), as well as the host of the Energy Espresso podcast. She teaches a course on the geopolitics of energy in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Politics of Strategic Survival, Influence, Values and Ideologies of Iran and IsraelProf. Farid Mirbagheri
Professor of International Relations and Dialogue Chair in Middle Eastern Studies (Retd.)
University of Nicosia
14 June 2024

Professor Mirbagheri discusses the complex political dynamics and ideological conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, that revolve around the influence of ideology on state governance. Ideology, when intertwined with religion, often acts as a destabilizing force, leading to challenges in achieving state goals. Historical examples, such as the Soviet Union and Iran, illustrate how states that are deeply rooted in ideology frequently struggle to fulfill their objectives. Iran's role in the region is significant, especially in its financial and military support for proxy groups like Hezbollah. Through these proxies, Iran extends its influence and maintains its ideological opposition to Israel, contributing to the ongoing conflict. The challenges of applying Western concepts of statehood in the tribal societies of the Middle East are also evident. In these regions, tribal loyalty often supersedes national loyalty, making governance more complex. The distinct cultural and social structures in these societies create difficulties in adopting Western-style governance, as tribalism and religiosity remain strong forces. Furthermore, the concepts of peace and security are not always synonymous in this context. Israel's relationships with its Arab neighbors reveal that peace does not necessarily guarantee security. Strategic decisions, such as the division of Palestinian groups, have had lasting impacts on regional security.

#Iran #Israel #Lebanon

Prof. Farid Mirbagheri is an academic and was formerly Professor of International Relations and held the Dialogue Chair in Middle Easter Studies at the University of Nicosia up to his retirement in 2023. A co-founder of the Cyprus Diplomatic Academy in 2010 he was its first Executive Director for two years. From 1997 to 2005 he also acted as the Research Director of the Centre for World Dialogue, a NGO committed to promoting inter-cultural dialogue, based in Nicosia.

Professor Mirbagheri was also a member of the original committee of Jubilee 2000, a global movement that has been campaigning for the remission of the backlog of unpayable debt by poorer countries. He has spoken in various international fora internationally and has written extensively. His latest books include War and Peace in Islam (Palgrave) and The Historical Dictionary of Cyprus (Scarecrow Press).