Turkey's Foreign Policy in a Shifting Regional Landscape
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
Moshe Dayan Center and Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
16 January 2025

Dr. Cohen Yanarocak discussed Turkey's shift in foreign policy under Erdoğan, transitioning from a cautious, non-interventionist approach to an assertive and influential role in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean. This change reflects a neo-Ottoman vision, aiming to restore Turkey’s historical influence in the region through military, political, and economic strategies. It can also be observed in Turkey's actions in Syria, its strained relations with Israel, and its use of soft power and infrastructure projects to expand its reach. Turkey's strategy has far-reaching implications for neighboring countries and the balance of power in the region.

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Agreement
Laury Haytayan
Energy Policy Expert in the Middle East and North Africa
27 November 2024

On November 26, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, which was subsequently confirmed by U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron. The Lebanese government, led by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri as the primary negotiator, was the last to confirm the ceasefire on November 27. However, criticism arose over the Speaker’s negotiation allegedly prioritizing Hezbollah's interests rather than Lebanon’s national interests. The ceasefire terms include a 60-day timeline for the Lebanese Armed Forces to gradually deploy in southern Lebanon, ensuring Hezbollah’s military presence is dismantled, while Israeli forces withdraw. The agreement, backed by UN resolution 1701, introduces a new enforcement mechanism involving U.S. and French oversight. Although the ceasefire has eased immediate humanitarian concerns, political tensions persist in Lebanon over Hezbollah’s role and influence, with debates about its alignment with Iranian agendas and its unilateral actions in the conflict. The coming 60 days are critical for the agreement’s implementation and the region’s stability.

Laury Haytayan is a Lebanese oil and gas expert in the Middle East and North Africa. She is the Middle East and North Africa director at the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) - an independent, international non-profit organization that provides policy advice, research and works on advocating for better managed resources and energy transition in oil rich countries. She was selected by Gulf Intelligence as one of the top 30 female energy market analysts and one of the top 50 energy experts in MENA for 2023. Laury hosts NRGI's monthly webcasts on energy transition in MENA (https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpH1GF5iTHBHtiJK6uti0Ne-Aq0acmNd4) and the podcast "Energy Espresso," a UNDP and EU production focused on energy in Lebanon (https://podcasts.apple.com/lb/podcast/energy-espresso/id1607821499). You can also find her at https://x.com/LauryHaytayan.

#Israel #Hezbollah #ceasefire

Jordan in the Context of Regional Developments
Amer Al Sabaileh
University Professor and Geopolitical Expert
10 October 2024

Jordan faces significant challenges due to its geographic position and regional instability, but it remains a relatively stable country with strong institutions. King Abdullah II’s leadership has maintained political stability, despite economic hardships and rising domestic discontent. The recent electoral success of the Muslim Brotherhood reflects popular frustrations, but Jordan’s monarchy retains control over key decisions. Jordan’s economy, heavily reliant on tourism and foreign aid, has been severely impacted by regional conflicts, particularly the war in Gaza. To build resilience, the country must diversify its economy, investing in infrastructure, agriculture, and technology. Partnerships with regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE are crucial for economic and security cooperation. Projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor could help Jordan position itself as a regional hub. The relationship with Israel, while essential for security and economic stability, remains a source of domestic tension, especially concerning the Palestinian issue. Jordan must balance its peace treaty with Israel while advocating for Palestinian statehood. Jordan’s relations with Iran are strained, primarily due to Iran's regional ambitions and its strategy of using Jordan as a geographic tool in its anti-Israel agenda. Iran views Jordan as a gateway to the West Bank, which has led to attempts at infiltration, smuggling, and destabilization. Despite some voices in Jordan advocating for diplomacy with Iran to reduce tensions, the text suggests that Iran’s actions on the ground—through its Revolutionary Guard and proxy forces—undermine the possibility of improving relations.

Turkey's Current Foreign Policy
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
Moshe Dayan Center and Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
27 August 2024

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak discusses Turkey's foreign policy, focusing on its strained relationship with Israel following Hamas's attacks on October 7th. Turkey initially misunderstood the scope of Israel's war on Hamas, leading to a pro-Hamas stance. This has worsened Israeli-Turkish relations and impacted Turkey’s foreign policy, which now seeks Israel’s failure in the international arena. Additionally, Turkey is normalizing relations with other neighboring countries, including Iraq, Egypt, Syria, and Greece, while also seeking to strengthen its presence in Africa, particularly in Somalia and Niger. Turkey’s involvement in Libya and the Sahel region, along with its aspirations for a nuclear program, highlights its growing geopolitical influence. Turkey’s relations with Israel and the U.S. may evolve depending on future political developments in the United States, especially if Donald Trump returns to power.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, Ph.D (Tel Aviv University) is a researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, and an expert on contemporary Turkish politics and society. Hay is the editor of Turkeyscope, and a member of the Middle East Network Analysis Desk. He is a frequent guest on Israeli and international media, where he regularly appears to discuss contemporary Turkish issues.

Follow him at https://x.com/hayeytan

#turkey #turkeyisrael #easternmediterranean

An Overview of Turkish Foreign Policy
Diego Cupolo
Editor-in-Chief, Co-Founder
Turkey Recap
27 August 2024

Diego Cupolo discusses Turkey's foreign policy in 2024, focusing on its efforts to normalize relations with regional neighbors. He highlights Turkey's security agreement with Iraq aimed at countering Kurdish militants and the push for new trade routes to enhance regional commerce. Relations with Syria remain stalled, although Turkey and Russia have resumed joint patrols in northern Syria. Additionally, Turkey is attempting to mediate conflicts in Africa, the Caucasus, and maintain a balancing act between Russia and Ukraine amid U.S. sanctions. Lastly, Turkey's relations with the EU show potential progress, with renewed diplomatic engagements despite concerns over Turkey's growing energy dependency on Russia.

Diego Cupolo is an Editor-in-chief "Turkey recap". Follow him on X: https://twitter.com/DiegoCupolo; https://twitter.com/Turkeyrecap

#Turkey #Türkiye #EasternMediterranean

Israel-Hezbollah Conflict: a Lebanese Perspective
Habib Malik
Associate Professor of History (Retired), Lebanese American University
Senior Fellow and Consultant for the Charles Malik Institute (CMI), Philos Project
23 August 2024

Habib Malik discusses the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which he sees as an existential war for Israel, driven by what he calls a "ring of fire" established by Iran through its support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Habib highlights Iran's expansionist ambitions in the region, particularly its strategic use of the Palestinian cause to extend its influence. In Lebanon, the situation is dire, with Hezbollah, Iran's primary proxy, effectively controlling parts of the country and undermining the Lebanese government. This control has led to economic collapse, political paralysis, and social unrest. Hezbollah prioritizes Iran's interests over Lebanon's and has created a state within a state, complete with its own economy and foreign policy. The Lebanese people, Habib asserts, are largely opposed to Hezbollah's actions and the broader conflict, which they feel has been imposed on them by external forces. He also touches on the rising tensions between different religious groups in Lebanon, with Hezbollah's rhetoric contributing to a climate of fear and division. The situation remains volatile, with potential for further escalation, although Habib notes that recent actions by the United States and Israel have temporarily deterred Iran and Hezbollah from further aggression. However, the situation is still precarious, with the possibility of accidental escalation keeping the region on edge.

#Lebanon #Israelwar #hezbollah

Habib Malik was born in 1954 in Washington, D.C., and received his education both in the United States and Lebanon. He earned his bachelor's degree in history from the American University of Beirut. After spending one year at Princeton University, he joined Harvard University for his graduate studies, where he earned his Ph.D. in Modern European Intellectual History in 1985. Habib taught Intellectual/Cultural and Socio/Political History at the American University of Beirut's Off-Campus Program (OCP) and at the Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. He was a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in 1995 and 1996, and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in 2003. His father, Charles Malik, was the first ambassador of Lebanon to the United States, the Lebanese representative to the United Nations, and a leading figure in the drafting and adoption of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Habib is also a human rights activist.

The Ramifications of the Majdal Shams Attack and the Recent Regional Escalation
Assaad Al Achi
Executive Director, Baytna
9 August 2024

The recent assassination of Hamas's political leader by Israel has led to a significant escalation of violence in the region. The attack on Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, a key area for the Druze community, is seen as a message to both Israeli Druze and those in Syria, particularly in Suweida, where anti-Assad protests are ongoing. This has heightened fears of further violence against these groups. The conflict's escalation is also expected to complicate the Syrian situation, with concerns about increased skirmishes between Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. forces on Syrian territory. There are also fears of disruptions to Syria's already fragile energy supply, which is heavily dependent on Iran. Turkey's role in the conflict has shifted to openly supporting the Palestinian cause, leading to a sharp deterioration in its relationship with Israel. This shift is marked by Turkey's recent actions, including inviting Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to address its parliament and joining an international case against Israel. Within Hamas, the appointment of a more radical leader following the assassination of its former political chief signals a move away from political negotiation toward a more militant stance, likely straining relationships with Arab nations like Qatar and Egypt and making future negotiations with Israel even more difficult.

#israelwar #Druze #GolanHeights

Assaad al-Achi is a Syrian economist and civil society activist based in Gaziantep, Turkey. He graduated from the American University of Beirut and INSEAD. He is currently executive director of Baytna Syria, a civil society support organization that seeks to be a hub for Syrian civil society organizations and empower them through capacity development and grants.